Short- & Medium Term Response
COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented, and its global impact is profound. As confirmed[1] cases rapidly increase around the world, evidence so far shows that COVID-19 is a threat to many lives. World-wide, economic activities have been disrupted, health systems are overwhelmed, the value of assets is depleted, and lasting geopolitical changes have been triggered. To date, confirmed cases from 203 countries are at 936 865. Of the total cases, 47 264 deaths and 194 658 recovered have been reported[2]. In Africa, 6 383 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed from 48 countries. There are 197 confirmed deaths and 408 recovered[3]. The total number of cases in Africa is relatively lower compared to Asia, Europe and the Americas.
Whilst health aspects are paramount and urgent, there is recognition of the social and economic havoc that COVID19 is already causing globally. There are a lot of “known unknowns” concerning the spread of COVID-19 in Africa. The disease itself and the measures taken by many countries to slow-down the spread of COVID-19 are drastically impacting social and economic activities. Once an economy is shutdown (or locked-down), it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover to the level it had attained prior to the lockdown. Livelihoods at individual, household, community and business (formal and informal) levels are being disrupted daily. In Africa, the adverse impact on performance of micro, small, medium and even large businesses and social dynamics in different communities[4] is unimaginable. The consequences range from reduced operational capacity to loss of contract work, drop in demand and suppressed markets. Ultimately, the chain of events leads to inevitable loss of jobs and income. The way Governments operate is not spared, given the weak digital connectedness.
Around the world, desperate and disparate efforts are being implemented to contain this disruptive pandemic. The restrictive measures such as national lockdowns are “double-edged”: The acute pullback in economic (and social[5]) activity, necessary to protect public health, is simultaneously jeopardizing the economic well-being of citizens and institutions[6]. Governments have a short window to mount public health responses that can stem COVID-19 spread. The same Governments must also put in place social and economic responses to cushion people from disruptions caused by this pandemic. Lockdowns are badly hurting the informal and small business sectors which are a major source of livelihoods for a significant part of the African population. Therefore, appropriate initiatives have to be implemented to address the current realities faced by African countries.
In Africa, at the continental level, the African Union Commission through its Center for Disease Control developed a continent-wide strategy with two overarching goals of (i) Preventing severe illness and death from COVID-19 infection in Member States, and (ii) Minimizing social disruption and economic consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks. Such actions envisage that the Africa CDC (i) coordinates the efforts of Member States, African Union agencies, World Health Organization, and other partners to ensure synergy and minimize duplication; (ii) promote evidence-based public health practice for surveillance, prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and control of COVID-19.
Also, at the continental level, the AU has acted swiftly to establish a Coronavirus fund with commitments already totaling USD20 million. At the national level, most African countries have implemented lockdowns, testing (of suspected cases) and contact tracing. The downside of lockdowns, if they are prolonged[7], is their negative impact on social and economic activities. In poor and populous communities, prolonged lockdowns are a ready trigger for social unrest. Therefore, AUDA-NEPAD short-term response and support to Members States is situated in the context of slowing down the pandemic, knowing more about how COVID-19 is spreading and lessening the socio-economic impact. The lower numbers of confirmed cases in Africa are more than worrying because they do not help us to understand the scale of the COVID-19 outbreak (i.e., actual total number of COVID-19 cases). Except for South Africa, the rate of change of the confirmed cases is also lower: Are we doing enough tests to get the overall picture? What of if the pandemic takes a turn for the worst on the continent during the impending winter season? China and to a lesser extent South Korea introduced aggressive lockdowns to manage the outbreaks and ramped up testing in addition to response capabilities[8]. Is Africa sitting on huge numbers of “undocumented cases of COVID-19[9]”? Could these numbers be among Africa’s largely rural population or hard-to-reach communities (e.g. informal settlements)? How can Africa deal with this dire “known unknowns” situation?
Africa has a window of opportunity (see Figure 1) to learn (quickly!) from the patterns, trends and experiences of high-risk countries that designed and implemented responses to slow down the spread of the pandemic and protect populations from the socio-economic adverse impact. Africa also has the different lessons to learn from; to design medium- to long-term regional programmes to strengthen our health systems and shield vulnerable populations from socio-economic impacts of the current as well as future pandemics. For AUDA-NEPAD, the immediate response is to support Member States to intensify and accelerate their (1) Mitigation (intended to slow down but not necessarily stop the spread of the epidemic in order to manage the peak healthcare demand and protect the most vulnerable groups), (2) Suppression (aimed at reversing the epidemic growth by reducing the number of cases to low levels using mainly clinical interventions) measures. As the pandemic continues to adversely impact on most socio-economic activities in African countries, the most optimistic (yet most unlikely) scenario expects the GDP growth of Africa to drop from 3.9% to 0.4% in 2020[10]. Given this likelihood, AUDA-NEPAD medium- to long-term responses are situated in five key priorities that are aimed at strengthening (1) Health Systems, (2) Food Systems (3) Skills Development and Employment, (4) Education and (5) National Planning and Data Systems. Therefore, the appropriate actions to take should be prioritized and resources mobilized to cover the full scope of work. AUDA-NEPAD will deliver in those critical areas leveraging the support of its technical networks and its south-south and triangular cooperation.
[1]The total number of people infected with COVID-19 is not known. A confirmed case “a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection” according to the World Health Organization
[2]COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (www.worldometers.info). Last accessed April 1st 2020
[3]Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. Accessed www.coronavirus.jhu.edu, April 1 2020
[4]Diana Mitlin, (27 March). Dealing with COVID-19 in the towns and cities of the global South. https://www.iied.org/dealing -covid-19-towns-cities.../.
[5]Our own emphasis
[6]Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal (March 2020). Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal. McKinsey & Company
[7]A day or anytime longer is enough to cause enormous socio-economic problems such as loss of income, loss of jobs, closure of businesses (particularly MSMEs), drop in productivity and many more.
[8]McKinsey & Company (Updated March 25, 2020). COVID-19: Briefing materials-Global health and crisis response
[9]Ruiyun Li, et al., (16 March 2020). Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov2). Science 10.1126/science.abb3221.
[10]Katrik Jayaram, et al., (April 2020). Tackling COVID-19 in Africa: An unfolding health and economic crisis that demands bold action