This is the 9th post in a blog series to be published in 2023 by the APET Secretariat on behalf of the AU High-Level Panel on Emerging Technologies (APET) and the Calestous Juma Executive Dialogues (CJED)

The impact of climate change is posing a significant threat to Africa's ability to achieve the goals outlined in the African Union (AU) Agenda 2063.[1] The continent is experiencing a rise in temperature, heat waves, flooding, cyclones, droughts, and sea-level rise resulting in fatalities, displacement, and property damage. Unfortunately, despite having relatively low greenhouse gas emissions, Africa remains the most vulnerable continent to the effects of climate change. The Henley & Partners index assesses the effects of climate change on local communities and countries' abilities to adapt. The index reveals that the continent's average climate resilience score is 27, which is significantly lower compared to the rest of the world (see figure 1).

Figure 1: Index scores for climate resilience of African countries in 2022

The systemic risks posed by climate change to Africa's economies, infrastructure investments, water and food systems, public health, agriculture, and livelihoods could reverse the modest socio-economic development gains that the continent has made, leading to deeper poverty.

Agriculture and employment are key components of Africa's GDP, and the continent is heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Furthermore, seven of the ten countries that are most vulnerable to climate change are in Africa, thereby exacerbating the continent's vulnerability. Worth noting is that African countries such as Mozambique and Malawi have been ranked to be in first and third positions, respectively, on the climate change vulnerability index. As such, since 2000 Malawi and Mozambique have experienced the negative effects of climate change, including persistent droughts, floods, cyclones, landslides, heat waves, and unpredictable changes in weather patterns. Particularly, the frequent tropical cyclones are significantly threatening the lives and properties in Mozambique and Malawi.[2]

A case in point is Cyclone Anna, which hit Mozambique in January 2019, thereby, causing severe flooding and landslides, leading to the displacement of over 130,000 people and the deaths of at least 66 people. Just two months later, Cyclone Idai struck Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, leading to over 1,300 fatalities and with significant damage to infrastructure. This was one of the most severe natural disasters ever recorded in Southern Africa, and it caused severe food insecurity in the region.  In December 2019, Cyclone Gombe hit Mozambique, leading to the death of at least 13 people and the displacement of over 17,000 people. The most recent cyclone, Cyclone Freddy, hit Mozambique in February 2021, causing severe flooding, and leading to the death of at least six people.[3]

These cyclones have had a profound financial impact on the agricultural sector, among others, which is critical for the economic development of both Mozambique and Malawi. The recent cyclones have caused widespread crop damage, resulting in reduced yields and increased food insecurity. For example, in Malawi, Cyclone Idai caused an estimated US$97 million in damage to agriculture, while Cyclone Gombe caused an estimated US$17 million in damage. In Mozambique, Cyclone Idai caused an estimated US$773 million in damage to infrastructure and agriculture, and Cyclone Gombe caused an estimated US$54 million in damage.[4]

These cyclones have also posed a significant threat to the socioeconomic development of these countries. In addition to the financial impact on agriculture, cyclones have caused damage to critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and buildings, thereby hindering economic growth and development. Cyclones have also led to displacement, increased vulnerability to disease outbreaks, and disruption of education and healthcare services.[5]

Climate change has been linked to the recent cyclones in Mozambique and Malawi. As the Earth's climate continues to warm, sea surface temperatures are also rising. This increase in temperature provides more energy for cyclones to form and intensify. For example, Cyclone Idai formed in the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel, which had surface temperatures well above average at the time. Furthermore, climate change is causing changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which can affect the formation and trajectory of cyclones. In the case of Cyclone Idai, scientists believe that the changes in the jet stream, a fast-moving band of air in the upper atmosphere, caused the storm to stall over Mozambique, resulting in heavy rainfall and flooding.[6] Sea level rise, which is also linked to climate change, can exacerbate the impact of cyclones by increasing the risk of storm surges and coastal flooding. Storm surges and coastal flooding can cause significant damage to coastal communities, as observed in Mozambique during Cyclone Idai. Additionally, climate change is causing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as cyclones, droughts, and floods. This means that even if the overall number of cyclones does not increase, the ones that do occur are likely to be more severe. This has been observed in the case of Cyclone Idai, which was one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded in the region.[7]

Insufficient knowledge and awareness regarding the occurrence of cyclones have been identified as contributing factors that exacerbate casualties and property destruction in Mozambique and Malawi. An essential aspect of mitigating disaster risks is providing early warning. This can help reduce the financial and physical impact of hazardous incidents, such as natural disasters and prevent loss of life. Therefore, effective early warning systems should implemented to actively engage with communities and individuals vulnerable to various hazards, raise public awareness of the dangers, efficiently disseminate messages and alerts, sustain a consistent state of preparedness, and facilitate prompt action to be successful.[8] To meet these challenges, the African Union High-Level Panel on Emerging Technologies (APET) calls on African countries such as Mozambique and Malawi to leverage smart and advanced technologies to provide dependable early warning indicators to mitigate the threats of tropical cyclones. The ongoing digital transformation in African countries presents opportunities to enhance the management of disaster and climate risks. These emerging technologies include the usage of drones, blockchain and short message services (SMS).  

APET realises that integrating a combination of communication tools, remote sensing, and databases oriented towards spatial and temporal aspects is crucial to developing systems that can alert people about impending cyclones. These new and innovative technologies are indispensable in conceptualising such systems. Some policymakers have argued that if people had been evacuated from hot spot areas promptly, some of these fatalities could have been avoided.[9] For instance, drones can speed up the search and rescue process by efficiently covering a large area. Drones can provide rescuers with valuable information about the best course of action during search and rescue operations. Additionally, drones are equipped with sensors that can detect heat, vibration, binary signals, and noise, making them highly effective in locating survivors buried beneath debris. These advantages make drones an essential tool for disaster response, as they can also take aerial pictures to help assess the situation on the ground.

The high mobile phone ownership rate in Malawi and Mozambique creates an opportunity to use technology to  mitigate the effects of cyclones. One promising solution is the use of SMS messaging to warn people of the impending danger of cyclone-related storms. This method has the potential to reach many people quickly and effectively.[10]

It is, however, essential to note that without a well-designed alert system in place, even the most advanced technology may not be effective in saving lives during a disaster. Unfortunately, Malawi and Mozambique do not lack an SMS-based weather information and disaster alert system in place. Such a system would be crucial in alerting individuals to the danger and providing them with the necessary information to move away from disaster-prone areas.[11]

APET recognizes the potential of an SMS-based alert system to reach a broad section of the population with critical information quickly. For example, the system could provide information on the timing and expected impact of a cyclone, advice on what to do and where to go, and emergency contact numbers. By providing individuals with the right information, they can make informed decisions and take appropriate action to protect themselves and their families.[12]

The use of blockchain technology to predict and respond to cyclones is a relatively new concept, but it has already shown significant promise in several countries around the world. For example, in Bangladesh, a blockchain-based system called TARA (Transparent And Reliable Aid) was used to distribute aid to victims of a cyclone in 2019. The system used blockchain technology to track the distribution of aid and ensure that it reached those in need quickly and efficiently. This approach resulted in significant cost savings and helped to prevent fraud and corruption.[13]

Similarly, in the Philippines, a blockchain-based system called AID Chain was used to distribute aid to victims of Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. The system allowed donors to track their contributions and ensure that they reached the intended recipients. The use of blockchain technology in this context helped to improve transparency, accountability, and trust among stakeholders.[14]

Blockchain technology has not only enhanced aid distribution but has also proven to be beneficial in improving rescue operations and disaster response. For example, in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, a blockchain-based system called BitGive was used to track rescue operations and ensure that resources were deployed efficiently. As such, APET notes that the use of blockchain technology has demonstrated significant potential in disaster response and relief efforts in several countries around the world. The Panel notes that by improving transparency, accountability, and trust, blockchain technology can help to ensure that aid and resources reach those in need quickly and efficiently, ultimately saving lives and reducing the financial impact of natural disasters such as cyclones.[15]

Notably, African nations are progressively recognising the importance of embracing emerging technological opportunities to drive economic growth and development. However, APET notes that to take full advantage of these opportunities and encourage African governments to provide a regulatory environment that can support innovation and a supportive policy environment. For example, in 2016, Rwanda became the first country in the world to use drones to deliver medical supplies to remote areas. This innovative approach to healthcare delivery was made possible by a regulatory environment that allowed for the testing and deployment of new technologies. Additionally, the Rwandan government has implemented policies to promote the growth of the technology industry, such as tax breaks for startup companies and investments in technology infrastructure.[16]

Figure 2: Medical supplies delivered near Kabgayi Hospital in central Rwanda.

Furthermore, Kenya has emerged as a leader in mobile money technology, with the successful launch of M-Pesa in 2007. However, the success of M-Pesa was only possible because of a regulatory environment that allowed for the testing and deployment of new payment technologies. The Kenyan government has also implemented policies to support the growth of the tech industry, such as the establishment of technology hubs and investments in broadband infrastructure.[17]

Therefore, APET realises that for African nations must have a regulatory environment that fosters innovation and a supportive policy environment to seize new technological opportunities. Thus, African governments should embrace technological innovation and create a supportive environment for the technology industry to benefit the economic benefits of the digital age, drive job creation, and improve the livelihoods of their citizens. APET identifies that the emergence of new technologies presents opportunities to improve disaster risk management and reduce the impact of cyclones on the continent. However, to leverage these opportunities, it is essential that African governments prioritise expanding internet access to remote and disaster-prone areas, as it will enable individuals to receive timely warnings and information during a crisis. Furthermore, African policymakers should encourage the use of connected devices such as smartphones and sensors to improve disaster risk management by providing real-time data on weather conditions and help to monitor the impacts of cyclones. Thus, APET encourages African governments to invest in cloud computing and artificial intelligence technologies to improve risk analysis and enable faster and more accurate responses during disasters. By doing so, African countries can improve disaster risk management and reduce the impact of cyclones on the continent by leveraging emerging technologies.

 

 

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[1] https://www.afdb.org/en/cop25/climate-change-africa

[2] https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/focus-areas/natural-hazards-and-disaster-risk-reduction/tropical-cyclones

[3] https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/cyclone-idai-and-floods-cause-massive-destruction-deaths-mozambique-zimbabwe-and.

[4] https://www.fao.org/3/cb3673en/cb3673en.pdf

[5] Molua, E. L., Mendelsohn, R. O., & Akamin, A. (2020). Economic vulnerability to tropical storms on the southeastern coast of Africa. Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 12(1), 676. https://doi.org/10.gre102/jamba.v12i1.676.

[6] https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/2-years-cyclone-idai-and-mozambique-has-already-faced-additional-3-cyclones

[7] https://reliefweb.int/report/world/rising-sea-levels-besieging-africas-booming-coastal-cities

[8] https://www.worlddata.info/africa/mozambique/cyclones.php

[9] Tuśnio, N.; Wróblewski, W. The Efficiency of Drones Usage for Safety and Rescue Operations in an Open Area: A Case from Poland. Sustainability 2022, 14, 327. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010327.

[10] https://www.unicef.org/stories/massive-flooding-malawi-mozambique-and-zimbabwe

[11] https://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1295303/FULLTEXT01.pdf

[12] Eliot Christian, Carolina Cerrudo, Elizabeth Viljoen, Nathan Cooper, Ronald Jackson, Vanessa Gray and Adanna Robertson-Quimby, Communicating for Life-saving Action: Enhancing messaging in Early Warnings Systems, Disaster risk reduction, Bulletin nº : Vol 71 (1) – 2022. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/communicating-life-saving-action-enhancing-messaging-early-warnings-systems.

[13] Hussain, Abdullah & Emon, Md & Tanna, Toufiq & Rasel Iqbal, Emon & Onik, Md Mehedi Hassan. (2022). A Systematic Literature Review of Blockchain Technology Adoption in Bangladesh. Annals of Emerging Technologies in Computing. 6. 1-30. 10.33166/AETiC.2022.01.001.

[14] https://fintechnews.ph/57189/blockchain/the-philippines-is-poised-to-become-number-one-global-blockchain-hub/#:~:text=The%20Philippines%20is%20also%20home,to%20money%20transfer%20businesses%20around.

[15] Welton, M., Vélez Vega, C. M., Murphy, C. B., Rosario, Z., Torres, H., Russell, E., Brown, P., Huerta-Montanez, G., Watkins, D., Meeker, J. D., Alshawabkeh, A., & Cordero, J. F. (2020). Impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on Puerto Rico Maternal and Child Health Research Programs. Maternal and child health journal, 24(1), 22–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10995-019-02824-2.

[16] https://www.borgenmagazine.com/mobile-technology-in-africa-advantages-and-progress/#:~:text=Mobile%20technology%20in%20Africa%20brings,improve%20the%20entire%20continent's%20functionality.

[17] https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/how-kenya-became-a-world-leader-for-mobile-money.