This is the 35th post in a blog series to be published in 2021 by the Secretariat on behalf of the AU High-Level Panel on Emerging Technologies (APET) and the Calestous Juma Executive Dialogues (CJED)

The Africa Union's (AU) Agenda 2063 aspires to attain a prosperous and food-secure Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development.[1] Africa's food security can be accomplished by modernising, automating, and digitalising agriculture to enhance Africa's agricultural efficiency and production.[2] Productive and sustainable agriculture can address the current food insecurities that 100 million Africans are facing. The food insecurities are due to climate change, wars and conflicts, resource mismanagement challenges, flooding, as well as pandemics such as COVID-19. Further to this, more especially in East Africa, food production is being decreased by pest infestation and huge swarms of locusts across the continent.[3] Therefore, several Africans struggle with monitoring and management systems to control and alleviate locusts from their fields. To manage the locust's infestation challenges, African countries are considering emerging technologies to increase their locusts' control mechanisms and systems.

Notably, East African countries have been contending with swarms of desert locusts from as early as 2020. This recent locust infestation phenomenon has been the most damaging and alarming outbreak in the region that has been observed in decades. Unfortunately, the upsurge of desert locusts carries negative implications against the food security and livelihoods in the Horn of Africa. This is enabled and aggravated by intensified breeding of locust incursions in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Somalia.[4] Furthermore, with limited rainfalls as low as 200 mm annual rainfall, due to climate change, the desert locusts usually increase across the semi-arid and arid deserts of Africa, as well as the Near-East and South-West of Asia. Unfortunately, if the locusts develop across Asia, they may emigrate to Africa along the East African region.

On the contrary, under normal conditions, the locust populations may decline due to natural mortality and locusts' emigration. However, due to global warming, this trend is hardly being observed. Because it has been increasingly hotter since 2009, more damaging locust swarms are also increasing across the globe, including the African continent. Unfortunately, the locust swarms have disproportionately affected African countries because of limited detection and management of locusts' capacity.[5]

Furthermore, above-average rain may also increase the locust swamps, as has been observed in East Africa. This is because the wet conditions and vegetation favour the survival of locusts' eggs. For example, the East African region has received up to 400% above normal rainfall between October and December 2019. These abnormal rains were due to the Indian Ocean dipole, and this phenomenon was accentuated by climate change.[6] Consequently, this has exacerbated the locust plague across the region. Regrettably, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has estimated that, in a single day,  if a swarm of locusts can cover approximately 1 km2 of the crops fields, they can potentially consume food equivalent to feeding more than 35,000 people.[7]

The African Union Panel on Emerging Technologies (APET) advocates for the adoption of smart technologies that can help African countries systematically and effectively mitigate the effects of the devastating locusts as they are increasingly threatening Africa's food security. These mitigating technologies include artificial intelligence-enabled drones for surveillance and spraying pesticides, satellite imagery for surveillance and observation purposes, and digital sensors for early locusts' detection mechanisms. Furthermore, digital technologies can assist the most vulnerable communities to access strategic information on weather forecasts and early warnings of locust infestations. The African countries can then easily formulate and implement locust management systems and timely response mechanisms.

Kenya, one of the East African countries that the locust plague has significantly impacted, has predominately utilised aerosol pesticides to curb the spread of locusts. Unfortunately, this is only effective during the egg and hatching stages of the locusts' life cycle or before growing wings. However, once the locusts have matured, it becomes difficult to track the locusts because of their high migratory speed and the long distances that they can cover within a short period of time. For example, a Kenyan-based company called Engineering and Technology has developed a tracking device that can be used to track locusts digitally. This tracking device is placed on the thorax of a locust, like a backpack, to track the actual location and travel patterns of the locusts.[8] In this way, the locusts can be not only be tracked but immobilised using suitable pesticides.

Considerations are also being made to upscale the utilisation of Unmannered Ariel Vehicles (drones) for surveillance and management systems for locusts. In some cases, drones are utilised to spray pesticides on locusts so to control and eliminate them. For example, in Sudan, the drones, equipped with calibrated spraying equipment to enable mapping and precision spraying, are utilised to manage and control desert locusts.[9] Fundamentally, the drones are used to complement the conventional spraying techniques so to target the difficult-to-reach locust infestations and destinations.

Traditionally, locusts monitoring relies heavily on ground-based surveys. Ground-based surveys require individual searches of locusts in areas with a history of locust activity. Unfortunately, such surveys remain inefficient and thereby limiting comprehensive reporting on locust activities to national locusts control units, neighbouring countries, and international agencies in a timely manner and at regular intervals. As the desert locust populations increase, they turn to often aggregate to lay eggs. However, since the locusts are extremely sensitive to atmospheric density changes, slight changes in atmospheric conditions, probably due to climate changes, prompts rapid phase transformation. This phenomenon may result in locust swarms' emigration in search of new territories. Notably, this phase transition is continuous and cumulative. This easily reversible process occurs within a short period of between 4 h to 32 h. However, regular monitoring intervals using drone technology can help African countries easily predict the locusts' probable migration patterns. Consequently, locusts monitoring agencies and farmers can easily manage these swarms of locusts

The satellite imagery is used to locate and map emerging vegetation in the desert. For example, vegetation data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra Satellite and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used to assess and evaluate the vegetation's health and greenness using red and near-infrared light reflection. This data is important because research has demonstrated a positive relationship between NDVI and the presence of grasshopper populations. This is possibly because grasshoppers were found in areas with higher rainfall. Therefore, monitoring NDVI can help African countries monitor and forecast the desert locust by evaluating and monitoring ecological conditions favourable to locust survival, breeding, and gregarisation.

The satellite imagery monitoring systems should be accompanied by systematic and in-depth on the ground observations that can help African Member States best decide control interventions against initial locust congregations. Such measures can considerably increase the cost-effectiveness of locust monitoring and further alter the paradigm of locust control from a predominant curative approach towards preventive methods. As such, satellite imagery can provide Africa's Member States with continuous approximations of rain-producing clouds and ecological environments. This information can also include vegetation development and soil moisture as it influences grass abundance and size. These environmental conditions are the most crucial factors required to monitor desert locust habitats effectively and predict probable locust development. Therefore, APET believes that the temporal, spectral, and spatial characteristics of these sensor instruments utilising satellite imagery technology can provide African countries with a vast range of sensing capacities.

Some African communities also capture the locusts. After capturing the locusts, they can also serve as a source of high protein animal feed and organic fertiliser that African farmers may consider an alternative. Normally, the locusts are harvested at night during their resting period. For example, in Kenya, the locusts are captured and processed into protein-rich animal feed and organic fertiliser for farming purposes.[10]

APET is encouraging African countries to consider adopting these emerging technologies as they are cost-effective and robust and can significantly optimise food production and Africa's food security. Therefore, APET suggests that relevant surveillance systems and spraying technologies can mitigate the growing threat of locusts.

Featured Bloggers – APET Secretariat

Justina Dugbazah

Barbara Glover

Bhekani Mbuli

Chifundo Kungade

[1]https://au.int/en/agenda2063/aspirations.

[2] https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/sustainable-agriculture/2739771.pdf.

[3] https://reliefweb.int/report/angola/food-insecurity-and-hunger-africa-information-bulletin-april-2021.

[4] https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/qa-impact-desert-locusts-horn-and-eastern-africa.

[5] https://www.npr.org/2021/01/19/958543535/locust-swarms-threaten-parts-of-east-africa.

[6] https://reliefweb.int/report/world/transforming-food-and-agriculture-creating-food-security-while-fighting-climate-change.

[7] https://www.dw.com/en/east-africa-braces-for-a-return-of-the-locusts/a-56133496.

[8] https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/12/smart-technology-tackles-east-africa-s-locust-swarms/.

[9] http://www.fao.org/sudan/news/detail-events/en/c/1397253/.

[10] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/03/locust-plague-africa-kenya-innovation-start-up-bug-picture-climate-change/.